Edmunds.com Predicts January Sales Increase from Year Ago, Plummet for Toyota

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Edmunds.com analysts predict that January's new-vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 701,000 units, and that the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) will be 10.7 million, down from 11.2 in December 2009.

This sales forecast represents a 7.1 percent increase from January 2009 but a 31.7 percent decrease from December 2009, according to Edmunds.com. January 2010 had 24 selling days, two less than last January. When adjusted for this difference, sales increased 16.0 percent from January 2009. (The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.)

"December is generally one of the strongest sales months of the year, while January is typically one of the weakest, and that held true this season," said Jessica Caldwell, director of Industry Analysis for Edmunds.com. "This month’s sales were buoyed by hefty hikes in fleet sales."

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 47.2 percent in January 2010, up from 43.4 percent in January 2009 and up from 46.2 percent in December 2009.

"Toyota’s market share is likely to drop to 14.7 percent in January; the last time it was that low was in March 2006 when its share was 14.2 percent of U.S. sales. In contrast, Ford is expected to have its best month for market share since May 2006. Edmunds.com forecasts Ford’s share at 18.0 percent. The last time it was that high was in May 2006 at 18.4 percent," noted Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Michelle Krebs.

A detailed forecast is available at Edmunds' AutoObserver.com.