TransUnion forecasts that auto loan originations, or annual growth, will fall by 1.5% this year, a lending category exception in its 2026 Credit Originations Forecast. 

According to the outlook, credit card, mortgage and unsecured personal loans are expected to increase.

The information and insights company released the forecast in conjunction with its fourth-quarter Credit Industry Insights Report. The expected decline in auto loans comes after 2025 gains it says were driven by consumers motivated to finalize purchases before the end of the federal electric-vehicle tax credit and anticipated trade tariff price hikes. 

According to the report, auto loan originations rose over 6% year-over-year in the third quarter. Every credit risk tier posted year-over-year gains, led by subprime and super-prime tiers. 

“Much of the growth in subprime and super prime can be attributed to an increase in the growing number of consumers in each tier,” the company said. 

More consumers in high-risk and low-risk credit tiers could be reflective of an ongoing widening affordability gap that's been noted in other areas, including auto insurance. 

The report also noted that the average monthly payment for new and used vehicles continued to rise in the third quarter, along with financed amounts. And in the fourth quarter payment delinquencies rose by three basis points, mostly in used-vehicle loans. 

“Rising vehicle prices continue to push loan sizes and monthly payments higher, shifting a greater share of new loan originations to super prime consumers, who are better positioned to absorb these increases," said TransUnion Senior Vice President Satyan Merchant. 

"These trends underscore persistent affordability pressures that make it harder for many consumers to manage the total cost of ownership. While tariffs add to these challenges, broader pricing dynamics suggest affordability constraints are likely to persist if current patterns continue.”