Lenders, Consumers Take on More Auto Loan Risk
September records loosened credit access the most in over a decade as buyers took advantage of the conditions to afford trading, though loan applications fell.

Overall loan approval rates rose 30 basis points to about 74%, the highest level since August 2025.
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Automotive credit availability reached its greatest level in more than 11 years last month as lenders took on more risk to accommodate buyers.
Cox Automotive’s All-Loans Index rose for the fifth straight month, this time by about 2% to 107, up 9% year-over-year and its highest point since April 2015 as loan terms exceeding 72 months hit a record.
Subprime share led access loosening with an 80 basis-point increase to nearly 17½%, up 230 basis points year-over-year, Cox reported.
It was joined by:
- A 19 basis-point yield spread narrowing to 6.4%, its lowest point since December 2024
- A 60 basis-point jump in loans longer than 72 months to about 32% – a record and spanning all credit tiers
- A 40 basis-point increase in negative-equity share to about 58%, party due to the higher subprime share
- A 20 basis-point decline in down payment percentage to about 13% and across all channels and lender types
Overall loan approval rates rose 30 basis points to about 74%, the highest level since August 2025, Cox said. Captive lenders led access gains, up 4% from August and a new high. Loan applications, though, fell somewhat faster than approvals.
September lending conditions beg the question of whether lenders have stretched access about as wide as they can safely.
“Lenders are taking on more risk through a higher subprime share, longer terms and more negative equity, which raises potential losses if borrowers default, while earning a smaller spread over Treasury yields,” Cox said.
“If Treasury yields continue to rise faster than contract rates, that combination becomes harder to sustain. If contract rates rise to catch up, however, higher payments could make vehicles more difficult for borrowers to fit into their budget, leaving lenders with limited room to maneuver.”
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