They say that Texas does everything big, and the Lone Star state is flexing its collective muscle in U.S. automotive retail to the point of challenging the longtime market leader.

Tracking of state-by-state new-vehicle market share in recent years shows Texas closing in on U.S. leader California and already having passed it on total consumer spending, according to JD Power.

The company’s report points to Texas population and economic growth and a steady appetite for pickups as reasons for the closing gap between the sometime rivals.

So far this year, California’s market share of light-vehicle sales has dipped from 12.5% to 11.4% while Texas’ grew from 9.3% to 10.8%, JD Power reported. Based on the company’s 2026 U.S. retail sales forecast of 16.3 million units, it projects California will be down about 160,000 units compared to 2019 averages as Texas adds 197,000.

Texas already surpassed California in 2024 based on consumer spending on new vehicles, according to JD Power, though the two are still neck-and-neck. Texas’ share is now 10.7% versus California’s 9.9%. Texas auto dealers also make $400 more in finance-and-insurance revenue per transaction than California dealers.

“This puts a significant focus on vehicle financing as a critical component of the auto sales profitability equation as Texas becomes the dominant automotive market in the U.S.,” the JD Power report said.

Part of the purchase expenditure difference comes in Texas’ liking for pickups, whose prices skew high. Trucks make up 27% of the state’s new-vehicle sales compared to 17% of California’s. On the other hand, the latter market sees more luxury-vehicle sales versus Texas' lean toward mass-market brands.

Since Golden State consumers still buy a sizable share of sedans, JD Power says Texas’ growing influence could move automakers further away from that vehicle type than it already has to more heavily invest in higher-priced trucks and other larger vehicles.

Meanwhile, though California embraced electric vehicles and hybrids early and leads the country on EV sales, Texas has seen steady EV adoption and hasn’t experienced significant sales dips in the months since the federal government ended purchase incentives, JD Power said.