At midyear Cox Automotive revised down its original 2025 auto sales forecasts as analysts expect U.S. trade tariffs and high interest rates to dampen demand.

Cox lowered estimates to ranges in the uncertain atmosphere of U.S. trade negotiations and back-and-forth White House policy changes.

It dropped its full-year sales forecast from 16.3 million units to a potential low of 15.6 million, the retail share down from 13.3 million to as low as 12.8 million.

The lease volume forecast is for 100,000 fewer units to 3.2 million, Cox predicted, while it kept expected lease penetration at 25%.

Cox cut its used-vehicle sales outlook by 200,000 units to as low as 37.6 million, retail sales alone from 20.1 million to as low as 19.9 million. It similarly dropped its certified preowned forecast by about 100,000 units to as low as 2.4 million.

Tariffs, Cox said, raise prices and lower production over the longer term, leading to fewer sales, adding that consumer uncertainty and high interest rates compound lowered demand.

It declared that tariff-fueled auto shopping has ended and that demand should wane for the rest of the year, as most major auto brands’ sales have already fallen from the spring highs.

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