February new-vehicle sales are on track to fall from a year ago as high prices discourage consumers and electric-vehicle sales decline following the loss of a federal tax credit.

A J.D. Power forecast puts retail sales for the month at more than 931,000 units, down about 5% year-over-year. It projects the seasonally adjusted annual rate at 12.6 million units, down by about 600,000. 

Though the preliminary results are disappointing, J.D. Power analysts expect sales to pick up from here. They point out that several major automakers are targeting increased business this year, so “competitive intensity can be expected to rise in the coming months.”

Meanwhile, average transaction prices continue to apply the brakes on greater sales volume. J.D. Power forecasts about a 3% year-over-year jump in the ATP to $46,303.

EV deliveries are projected to make up about 7% of February sales, down nearly two percentage points year-over-year, according to the forecast. In addition to the vanished EV tax credit, J.D. Power points to increased EV prices and small industry discounts, which are projected to average $10,356, down about 15% from last February.

Non-EV discounts, though, are expected to be up about 12% year-over-year to $3,085, or 6% of manufacturer’s suggested retail price, according to the forecast.

“Affordability pressure remains significant, with the average monthly finance payment reaching $811, up $32 from a year ago,” said J.D Power OEM solutions President Thomas King.

Retailer profit per unit is still expected to be up 3% this month to $2,524.