NEW YORK - Vehicle sales are forecasted to reach 11.1 million units in 2010, which is a 7.8% increase from the estimated 10.3 million units projected to be sold in 2009, according to Fitch Ratings.

Fitch also expects U.S. medium- and heavy-duty truck volumes to improve against the weak 2009 numbers. Sales in the first half of 2010 are expected to fall and then rise in the latter half of the year.

A modest recovery is forecasted for U.S. automotive suppliers in 2010 based on higher projected light-vehicle production in the United States, the benefits of cost cutting actions in 2009, and recent capital markets transactions that have improved the sector's credit quality.

The outlook is also supported by less uncertainty regarding the U.S. original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and likely volume increases in emerging markets. The recovery is expected to be tempered by weak macroeconomic conditions, particularly in the United States, and lower light-vehicle and commercial-truck sales in Europe. Fitch also has longer term concerns about industry overcapacity and the structure of the supplier industry. Given the dismal automotive environment in 2009, comparisons in 2010 should fare well.