New-vehicle sales kept rising this month though incentive spending hasn’t, as both consumers and retailers try to head off trade tariffs’ effects.

J.D. Power’s March sales forecast puts total sales up 10% year-over-year to 1.5 million and retail sales up 13% to about 1.3 million for the sixth straight month of retail volume growth.

Though inventories are also up, incentive spending as a percentage of average manufacturer’s suggested retail price is essentially flat year-over-year at 6%, J.D. Power estimates. But month-over-month, average incentive spend fell $102.

“While the tariff situation remains both fluid and uncertain, the prospect of tariffs is already beginning to affect the industry,” said Thomas King, president of J.D. Power’s data and analytics division. 

“Although the magnitude of these effects is currently modest, they do present a preview of potential disruption as manufacturers, dealers and consumers prepare for uncertainty in the coming weeks and months.”

Auto dealer profit, though down from a year ago, is up month-over-month, according to the report, total profit per unit $2,212, down 8% year-over-year but up $54 from February. Still, aggregate profit per unit is forecast at $2.6 billion this month, about flat year-over-year.

“The fact that discounts are not increasing materially, even as inventories rise, is consistent with emerging expectations of future tariff-related price increases,” King said.

The full retail picture shows consumers are shelling out more money for new cars than ever before, said J.D. Power, which finds that the average retail transaction price is up $637 year-over-year to about $44,850, or about $54 billion in spending as a group, up about 10% and the biggest spend for March in history.

DIG DEEPER: New-Vehicle Loans Pinch Hard