New-vehicle prices jumped year-over-year in February, based on Cox Automotive calculations. The affordability pressure came despite incentive increases over January.

The average U.S. transaction price hit $49,353 for the month. That was up 3% over a year earlier, while incentives didn’t budge year-over-year, notwithstanding the incentives bump from January.

The ATP increase far exceeds the average 0.9% average annual ATP growth of the past three years, Cox noted. That couldn’t help spring new-vehicle sales, though Cox analysts said it doesn’t signal prices are coming off the rails.

“Outside of the ‘everything was broken’ phase, when prices were rising at a 13% clip, the industry’s long‑run average is closer to 3%,” said Executive Analyst Erin Keating. “What we’re seeing now looks more like normalization than a new pricing problem.”

In other words, around a $50,000 average has become the new normal. Still, Keating pointed out that most new-vehicle sales volume is below that average.

“The top five segments come in at around $44,000 on a weighted basis, and pickups account for a big share of that,” she said. “Remove expensive full-size pickups, and the average is closer to $39,000, which tells a very different affordability story.”

Still, pickups are very popular in the U.S., though gas price inflation triggered by the U.S.-Israel war on Iran could change that.

Manufacturer’s suggested retail prices fueled February’s inflation, the average exceeding $50,000 for the 11^th straight month and up nearly 4% year-over-year to $51,440, slightly more than the long-term average annual increase, Cox said.

February incentives were concentrated among luxury vehicle and compact SUV purchases, the average 6.9% of the ATP, slightly down from 7% a year earlier.

Electric-vehicle ATPs narrowed the gap with gas-powered cars to one of the slightest recorded, Cox said. The EV ATP fell 1% year-over-year to $55,300 for about a $6,500 differential.

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