September new-vehicle sales, adjusted for this year’s reduced selling days, are projected to be down about 2% year-over-year.

The J.D. Power estimate puts combined retail and nonretail deliveries at about 1.2 million units. It pointed out that this September has three fewer selling days than last year’s due to the Labor Day weekend falling partially in August with the early holiday of Sept. 2.

J.D. Power’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate is at 15.8 million units, flat year-over-year.

“When August and September results are combined, retail sales increase 2.6% year over year,” said Thomas King, president of the company’s data and analytics division.

Dealer profits are obviously down from last year with rebounded inventory. J.D. Power says September retailer profit per unit is a projected $2,294, down 29% year-over-year, and just about 14% of new units have sold about manufacturer suggested retail price.

The lingering effect of the pandemic-era reduction in leases is the smaller number of expiring leases that can lead to new sales, said King, who indicated that expiring leases are down 13% month-over-month and 28% year-over-year.

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