DETROIT - Automakers emerging from the worst year since 1970 are cautiously optimistic that a recovery is under way after last year's collapse in U.S. auto sales, reported The Detroit News.

Industry executives and analysts said they expect car and light truck sales to rise to 11.5 million or more this year from 10.4 million in 2009, bolstered by a strengthening economy.

The most bullish analysts forecast sales exceeding 13 million vehicles -- still far below the market's peak of 17.4 million at the start of the last decade when business was booming for Detroit's Big Three.

"Normalcy is about two years away," said Jesse Toprak, an auto analyst at pricing and sales forecaster Truecar.com.

Executives were encouraged by December's sales, which marked the fourth consecutive monthly increase in the annualized selling rate. Automakers also reported strengthening demand for both large and small vehicles.

General Motors Co. global industry analyst Mike DiGiovanni said that GM's optimism must be balanced with some caution about the outlook for 2010. For example, consumer confidence is fragile, oil prices may rise as the global economy expands and the U.S. jobless rate is likely to remain around the 10 percent mark next year.

Cautious Optimism

Analysts and economists say that in addition to the emerging economic recovery, auto sales in December were helped by two additional selling days in 2009 and a tax deduction for car purchases included in the U.S. government's economic stimulus measures.

Sales are likely to benefit from pent-up demand from consumers holding on to old cars because of economic and job worries.

Skittish consumers have been saving and scaling back spending as the new frugality of the economic bust replaces the free-spending consumer culture of the last decade's earlier boom.

Auto analyst John Murphy at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch predicted that demand for light vehicles would rise in 2010 to "a more normal low" of around 13.3 million units.

But most auto executives remain cautious after having overestimated demand for 2009, when sales ended up 21.2 percent lower. While GM's end-of-year forecast of 10.5 million vehicles was close to the mark, Ford and Chrysler's forecasts were considerably higher.