SAAR to Reach Highest Level Since August 2009, TrueCar.com Predicts

October 25, 2011

2 min to read

SANTA MONICA - TrueCar.com is predicting that new light-vehicle sales (including fleet) will reach 1.035 million units, a 9 percent increase from October 2010 and 1.7 percent decrease from September 2011. The forecast translates into a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 13.4 million units, which is on par with August 2009 SAAR levels, the vehicle information site reported.

"Consumers are no longer dragging their feet on new-vehicle purchases, as they feel the economy is moving in the right direction, " said Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry trends and insights for TrueCar.com. "This will be the fifth straight month where SAAR will rise and the highest we've seen in over two years."

Retail sales are up 9.8 percent vs. October 2010 and down 0.5 percent month over month, according to TrueCar.com. Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 20 percent of total industry sales in October 2011, reported F&I and Showroom magazine.

The industry’s average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,669 in October, representing a 0.6 percent month-over-month increase and a 4.6 percent year-over-year increase. Used-car sales are estimated to be 2.741 million units, up 5.7 percent from October 2010 and down 15.1 percent from September 2011. The industry’s new-to-used ration is expected to pace out at one to three for the month.

"Japanese automakers have seen substantial improvement in inventory this month and buyers are responding to the better availability of product as well as higher incentives," said Kristen Andersson, automotive analyst at TrueCar.com.

Unit Sales Forecast

Manufacturer	October 2011 Forecast	% Change vs. September 2011	% Change vs. October 2010
Chrysler	119,591	-6.1%	32.7%
Ford	169,376	-3.1%	7.4%
GM	192,239	-7.2%	4.9%
Honda	96,067	7.3%	-2.8%
Hyundai/Kia	80,701	-7.9%	9.3%
Nissan	82,832	-10.9%	18.7%
Toyota	135,064	11.2%	-7.2%
Industry	1,035,042	-1.7%	9.0%

Market Share Forecast

Manufacturer	October 2011 Forecast	September 2011	October 2010
Chrysler	11.6%	12.1%	9.5%
Ford	16.4%	16.6%	16.6%
GM	18.6%	19.7%	19.3%
Honda	9.3%	8.5%	10.4%
Hyundai/Kia	7.8%	8.3%	7.8%
Nissan	8.0%	8.9%	7.3%
Toyota	13.1%	11.6%	15.3%

Incentive Spending Forecast

Manufacturer	October 2011 Incentives	% Change vs. September 2011	% Change vs. October 2010	Total Spending
Chrysler	$3,303	-1.7%	-3.3%	$395,042,910
Ford	$2,827	-0.6%	2.4%	$478,837,220
GM	$3,182	-3.3%	2.7%	$611,670,809
Honda	$2,380	1.8%	17.7%	$228,642,744
Hyundai/Kia	$1,300	13.6%	-22.7%	$104,933,316
Nissan	$2,917	6.1%	15.3%	$241,609,588
Toyota	$2,387	6.6%	12.7%	$322,356,878
Industry	$2,669	0.6%	4.6%	$2,763,029,350